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Trend-tracking in action

trevor.kenney — Tue, 19 Oct 2010 04:30:09 +0000

Dr. Reg Bibby knows a thing or two about today's teens.

You may not like their asymmetrical hairdos, nose piercings or ironic t-shirts, but today's teenagers aren't turning Canadian culture on its head, as per the prevailing stereotype. On many levels, today's youth are actually looking better than previous generations, says sociologist and trend-tracker Dr. Reginald Bibby.

The notion of teenagers as threats to the well-being of Canadian society is a prejudicial stereotype that unfairly generalizes all teens. "There seems to be such a pervasive mindset that teens are simply not that likable and lovable," says Bibby.

In reality, quite the opposite is true, according to the ��Ѹ��Դ��߿�Ƭ of Lethbridge researcher who has been monitoring the attitudes and habits of Canadian teens and adults for three decades. Today's youth are solid citizens and are adjusting well to the new Canada, Bibby reports in his latest book, The Emerging Millennials: How Canada's Newest Generation is Responding to Change and Choice.

Working on Project Teen Canada, a series of national surveys that have examined Canadian teenagers' behaviour and values since 1984, Bibby and Associate Director James Penner completed the most recent installment in 2008. The survey of 5,500 teenagers across the country shows that the millennials are doing well. They're generous and polite. They report the most positive relationships with parents in three decades. The prevalence of vices like smoking, drinking and marijuana use have declined, as have depression, suicide and bullying.

Also on the decline is young people's interest in professional sports, including the beloved National Hockey League (NHL). Only about 50 per cent of young men and 20 per cent of young women follow the NHL. According to Bibby, their lack of interest demonstrates the acceleration of choices, but for an allegedly hockey-crazed country, it's a rather startling discovery that caught the attention of media outlets ranging from the National Post through Canada AM to the New York Times.

All in all, the baby boomer generation's "social experiment" of having both parents employed outside the home has known increasing success as older boomers and post-boomers have improved on how they balance careers and family life.

To quote a famous baby boomer lyric: the kids are all right.

While the large majority has been receptive to Bibby's overall good-news findings, not everyone is convinced. Bibby has found that invariably there are those who are down on teenagers, people who "don't want to be confused by the facts."

But such responses don't phase him. Dismantling tired stereotypes is important to the researcher who has explored social trends since coming to the U of L in 1975. Bibby's areas of myth-breaking have included attributing much teen-adult conflict to adults; questioning the extent to which people are abandoning religion; the importance of not only praising but tapping into our cultural diversity; documenting the limited growth of interest in the National Football League and National Basketball Association and the ongoing interest in the Canadian Football League; and making his most recent case for the elevation of the quality of teenage life in Canada.

Bibby's research philosophy has always been that it doesn't make sense to study trends abstractly; rather, it's essential to question Canadians directly.
"In my mind, if one wants to understand what people are thinking, there's no substitute for asking them," he says. "Therefore, a survey that is carried out well is simply a good conversation with people. It results in learning what Canadians are thinking – rather than telling them."

Disseminating the research is also an important aspect of Bibby's work. Over the years, he's consciously shared and explained his findings with Canadians through his books, media coverage and public presentations across the country.

His commitment to public awareness has not gone unnoticed. This fall, Bibby will receive the 2009 Distinguished Academic Award from the Confederation of Alberta Faculty Associations (CAFA), an award that recognizes the success of ��Ѹ��Դ��߿�Ƭ bringing their scholarly work to the broader community.

Not surprisingly, this isn't his first accolade. Bibby holds a U of L Board of Governors Research Chair in Sociology, has an honorary doctoral degree from Laurentian ��Ѹ��Դ��߿�Ƭ and in 2006 was appointed an officer of the Order of Canada in recognition of his research contributions to the country.

In the aftermath of the 2008 survey, the prolific researcher plans to take a breather from his survey-research. "I want to sit on a rock in some beautiful place and write poetry," he jokes. Instead of focusing on data collection, Bibby plans to spend more time analyzing the data he has accumulated and turn his attention to a new book on religion in Canada – Beyond the Gods and Back.

And, of course, he'll continue to hold up that mirror to Canadians.

"I really have been fortunate not only to do research but also to teach and make presentations that allow me to see to what extent people recognize themselves in the findings. It has made the research come alive."

Bibby is the author of 12 best-selling books with total sales of close to 150,000 copies. His research has received extensive media coverage and has been seen as the feature story on the cover of Maclean's on several occasions.

Trend-tracking in action

trevor.kenney — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 21:23:03 +0000

To quote a famous baby boomer lyric: the kids are all right.

Bibby's research philosophy has always been that it doesn't make sense to study trends abstractly; rather, it's essential to question Canadians directly.

"In my mind, if one wants to understand what people are thinking, there's no substitute for asking them," he says. "Therefore, a survey that is carried out well is simply a good conversation with people. It results in learning what Canadians are thinking – rather than telling them."

And, of course, he'll continue to hold up that mirror to Canadians.

Bibby Finds Major Decline in Teenage Interest in Pro Sports

trevor.kenney — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 20:39:23 +0000

Every league – including the NHL – suffering a drop in market share

Canada is supposedly a hockey-mad country with an insatiable appetite for the National Hockey League. But surprising new research findings reveal that Canadian interest in the NHL has actually declined over the past two decades.

What's more, the proportion of teenagers who follow the National Hockey League (NHL) is lower in Toronto than in any of Canada's six NHL cities.

The research, carried out by sociologist Reginald Bibby of the ��Ѹ��Դ��߿�Ƭ of Lethbridge and published in his new book, The Emerging Millennials, shows that since about 1990, teenage interest in the NHL has dropped from 45% to 35%.

Among adults, the percentage of fans has slipped from about 35% to 30%. The teenage decline in interest extends to all other major sports as well.

- During the glory days of the Blue Jays in the early 1990s, 33% of teenagers said they were following Major League Baseball (MLB). Today that figure stands at only 10%.

- Despite the presence of the Toronto Raptors, interest in the National Basketball Association (NBA) among teens is actually lower today (21%) than it was in the early 90s before the league expanded to Canada (27%).

- For all the exposure the National Football League (NFL) has been receiving, teenage interest has fallen from 26% to 19% over the past two decades.

- In the case of the Canadian Football League (CFL), just 14% of teens say they are currently following the league, down from 22% in the early 1990s.

"What these findings point to is the fact that the entertainment choices of young people and the rest of us have exploded," Bibby said.

"In addition, growing numbers of teens have come to Canada from countries where their sports choices have been led by soccer and basketball, rather than hockey, baseball, or football. And then there has been the ineptitude of the Maple Leafs. The result is that, in Ontario alone, the proportion of teenagers who closely follow the NHL has dropped from 40% in 1992 to 28% in 2008."

Bibby said that the patterns reflect in large part what some observers of social trends refer to as the "death of the monoculture" – where diverse consumer options are resulting in ever-increasing individual choices. It's true of music, fashion, lifestyle – and pretty much everything else.

Bibby's latest youth survey has found that "the monocultural casualties" extend to things like drinking, smoking, and sex. "Even 'vices' now have to compete for teenage attention," Bibby said. So it is that interest in the National Hockey League has taken a serious hit.

"Forget the rhetoric about the NHL needing to add teams in Canada because the country is in love with hockey," Bibby said.

"These findings suggest the NHL needs to add teams in Canada in order that more Canadians – starting with young people – will fall in love with hockey. As a key part of their attractiveness, of course, those new teams need to be competitive and entertaining – shortcomings that have been particularly blatant in the case of the Maple Leafs."

Bibby said his research also indicates that, as teens move into their 20s and 30s and beyond, their following of any given league or sport will come and go in keeping with what they consider to be of interest and value.

"For example, in the past two decades, teen interest in the NBA has waned as they have aged, while their interest in the CFL has increased. Obviously the sports one follows as a single teenager are not necessarily the sports one follows as a married parent."

The research message? Canadians' interest in hockey is hardly innate. The NHL, like every other sport, is going to have to work harder to retain and expand its market share. More Canadian teams, more accessible and affordable tickets, and a winning team in Toronto might be good places to start.

Reginald Bibby has been monitoring Canadian social trends since the mid-1970s, making his findings available through eleven best-selling books. His most recent book is The Emerging Millennials: How Canada's Newest Generation is Responding to Change and Choice (for details visit http://www.reginaldbibby.com).

The current Project Teen Canada survey was concluded in late 2008, and consists of a highly representative sample of more than 5,500 teenagers. Results are accurate within about plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times in 20.

Graphs which outline the research findings can be found below.

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UNews - National Basketball Association

Trend-tracking in action

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Trend-tracking in action

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Bibby Finds Major Decline in Teenage Interest in Pro Sports

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